A Looming Downturn for NYC Tourism as Foreign Visitors Vanish and Billions Slip Away

25 July 2025

New York City is facing a sharp slide in international tourism in 2025, with an estimated two million fewer foreign visitors expected to arrive, resulting in a staggering $4 billion shortfall in revenue compared to earlier projections. Though foreign tourists make up just 20 percent of all visitors, they account for roughly half of all tourism spending, meaning the financial impact is far deeper than the tally of heads through the gates would suggest. This dramatic reversal follows 2024, when city officials announced a return to pre-pandemic levels of tourism. The decline is being blamed on a combination of U.S. foreign policy missteps, escalating tariffs, strained Canada‑U.S. relations, and broader international unease with the American travel environment.

Julie Coker, CEO of NYC Tourism + Conventions, described the decline as “absolutely devastating” to local businesses, particularly smaller operators. Tour guides working with student groups report catastrophic drops in bookings, especially from Canada. One operator reported an 85 percent revenue loss from Canadian visitors alone, threatening to wipe out a critical market altogether. She warned that, if political tensions do not ease, Canadian school boards may decline travel to U.S. cities in 2026 even more decisively.

Industry insiders across Manhattan recount the slowdown—vendors at Central Park carriage stations missing their usual streams of U.K., Canadian, Irish, and Australian patrons. Midtown chain restaurants like Applebee’s and Hard Rock Café are scaling back amid a more than 20 percent drop in sales. These concrete signs reflect a broader narrative: tourists who once symbolized post-pandemic recovery are increasingly staying away.

The city’s tourism board had initially forecast 67.2 million visitors in 2025, but that number has since been revised down to around 64.1 million. That downward revision translates directly into lost jobs, tax revenue, and foot traffic across sectors that rely on tourism—from guided tours and gifts shops to hotels and dining establishments. The ripple effects could be felt in municipal budgets as well, as sales tax revenues and hospitality taxes fall short of expectations.

This downturn is part of a larger pattern plaguing the entire U.S. travel sector. The World Travel & Tourism Council warns that international visitor spending nationwide is projected to shrink by 7 percent in 2025, a loss of about $12.5 billion compared to 2024. That downturn is attributed to political friction, stricter immigration enforcement, adverse visa policies, and the strength of the U.S. dollar making travel more expensive for overseas visitors. Canada and Europe have shown especially sharp declines in outbound travel to the U.S.—with Canada down by over 20 percent year‑on‑year, and European markets falling significantly as well.

The economic implications extend beyond immediate tourist spending. Analysts warn that retail districts like Fifth Avenue in New York City could lose up to $4 billion in sales in 2025 alone. This downturn in consumer activity could cost over 230,000 jobs nationally, curb GDP growth, and erode labor income by billions. Amid this turbulence, many small businesses face tough choices about survival and strategy.

As the U.S. seeks to regain traveler confidence, tourism authorities in New York and beyond are ramping up global outreach. NYC Tourism is targeting marketing campaigns in Canada, the UK, Western Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific. Yet, with the current political climate still unsettled, experts warn that recovery may take several years without meaningful reforms in immigration policy, visa processing, and trade diplomacy.

In a city built on global connection, with its economy deeply entwined with international visitation, the 2025 tourism slide represents more than a temporary setback. It speaks to a fragile moment when geopolitics, perception, and policy converge to redefine economic opportunity. For New York City, the lesson is clear: welcoming infrastructure alone is not enough without the diplomatic and financial environment that draws visitors back.