Record U.S. Black Friday Crowds Will Be Looking for Deals That Hardly Exist

24 November 2025

This year’s U.S. Black Friday window is set to see an unprecedented 186.9 million shoppers between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, yet the atmosphere around holiday sales is less celebratory and more cautious with bargain hunters confronting a bargain drought rather than an abundance of markdowns.

Despite the record number of shoppers, the projected growth in holiday sales is modest at best. The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that sales for November and December will reach over $1 trillion for the first time, but only grow between 3.7% and 4.2% compared with last year’s 4.8%.

Retailers have responded to weaker demand and higher input costs with earlier sales windows and extended promotions this season. Major chains like Walmart began Black Friday offers as early as November 14, running special phases through December 1, while platforms such as Amazon and Macy’s opened dedicated portals to months of anticipated holiday activity.

But even with the early start, shoppers and analysts say the discount depth is far thinner than in previous years. For example, product categories like small kitchen appliances once offered for $5 or $10 now appear with modest coupons or minimal cuts. Jessica Ramirez of consultancy The Consumer Collective observed that many historic “door-buster” deals have disappeared entirely.

Shoppers are adapting accordingly. A New York-based online resale-market aggregator noted that higher prices across the board especially on essentials and everyday items are forcing stricter budgets. One shopper who spent roughly $500 on holiday gifts last year plans to limit her 2025 spending to $300 after her budget was squeezed by rising healthcare and housing costs.

Still, household balance sheets remain comparatively robust. Bank of America data cited in the article shows that savings levels across income groups are higher than in 2019, pre-pandemic suggesting that while consumers may be cautious, they are not yet destitute. The NRF’s chief economist Mark Mathews described consumers as “sentimentally weak and fundamentally sound.”

What emerges from this contrast is a tale of expectation versus experience. On one hand, the foot-traffic numbers reflect a still-strong cultural pull toward holiday shopping as a ritual. On the other, the average spending estimates which drop slightly to $890 per person from $902 last year highlight that many are shopping more selectively and choosing fewer items.

The timing of the discount shift is telling. With tariffs and higher costs of goods underpinning the pricing environment, retailers may be reluctant to slash inventory too deeply. Some key electronics and large-ticket items are seeing more modest markdowns or the markdowns come earlier and exit faster, which complicates the “get the door-buster now” mindset.

From a strategic standpoint, this holiday season may mark a recalibration in retail strategy. Retailers are relying less on blockbuster one-day events and more on elongated promotional calendars, loyalty-member early access and incremental deals. For the consumer, this means it is harder to know when the “best deal” is and whether waiting will pay off.

This shift carries larger implications. The success of the holiday season is vital for retailers many count on the last eight weeks of the year for a substantial portion of annual profits. A slower growth rate could ripple into inventory management, staffing decisions and even next-year pricing strategies.

For shoppers, the signal is clear: much of the narrative around Black Friday has changed. Instead of arriving at dawn for dramatically deep discounts, many are arriving with lists, budgets and a willingness to skip shopping if the deal isn’t remarkable. The “must-buy now” pressure may give way to “wait and see if something genuinely worth buying shows up.”

Yet for all the caution and slower growth, the fact that the shopping window remains so large and crowded speaks to the enduring appeal of holiday ritual, social tradition and the emotional payoff of buying gifts. Holiday budgets may be tighter but holiday mode is still on.

Ultimately, the key narrative of 2025 Black Friday is not that sales are collapsing they are not but rather that the era of spectacular deals may be fading. Bargain hunters may still score good deals here and there, but the margin for error is smaller, the urgency has shifted, and the expectations have changed. What was once a sprint-to-the-door moment now feels like a measured stroll through the discounted aisles.