Relief at the Grocery Store: Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Falls for Third Straight Year
- Nov 19
- 3 min read
19 November 2025
Americans preparing the holiday feast this year are seeing a little breathing room at the checkout line. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the average cost for a traditional Thanksgiving dinner for ten people has dropped to $55.18, marking a 5 % decline from the previous year and setting the lowest cost since 2021.
That computes to about $5.52 per person, based on a menu that includes a 16-pound turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, peas, dinner rolls, pumpkin pie with whipped cream and other traditional trimmings.
The principal driver of this welcome drop? Turkey prices. The Farm Bureau’s survey found that retail prices for a frozen 16-pound turkey fell 16.3 % year-over-year. Despite ongoing issues in turkey flock sizes and avian influenza outbreaks, consumer-facing prices were nudged downward thanks to promotional strategies and lower demand.
But before everyone breathes a big sigh of relief, there’s a caveat. Roughly half the components of the classic Thanksgiving menu are more expensive than they were last year. For example, frozen peas are up by 17.2 %, sweet potatoes jumped 37 %, and fresh vegetable trays soared 61.3 %.
Regionally the costs varied as well. In the South the traditional feast averaged around $50.01, while in the West it climbed to about $61.75.
Despite the year-on-year drop, the $55.18 figure remains about 13 % higher than the same meal cost in 2019, before the pandemic sparked a surge in food costs.
Several factors helped bring down the price. One is that grocery stores heavily promoted turkey specials, aiming to stoke demand and rotate inventory. Another is that lower wheat prices helped reduce the cost of baked goods like dinner rolls and stuffing mix.
On the flip side, the sharp rise in prices of certain produce and fresh-vegetable items is tied to supply-chain issues, weather-related disruptions, and labour shortages. In particular, the sweet-potato jump is linked to hurricane damage in North Carolina, the country’s biggest sweet-potato producer.
For households already burdened by inflation, the data brings mixed emotions. There’s the comfort of at least one holiday cost easing, but the lingering reality remains that food expenses are elevated relative to pre-pandemic years. For many consumers, the price relief may feel modest rather than dramatic.
Politically and economically, the survey gains significance. Food inflation has been a persistent concern for policymakers and voters alike, especially amidst other cost pressures like energy, housing, and wages. The timing of the survey released as the holiday season begins underscores how food-cost trends can shape consumer sentiment.
The Farm Bureau’s method involves volunteer shoppers across all 50 states and Puerto Rico who check prices at grocery stores or online during early November. Items in the survey exclude deep coupon-driven or bulk-buy deals and reflect typical retail pricing.
What might this all mean for the remainder of the year and for shoppers planning their holiday menus? First, turkey bargains may continue to hold or even deepen as retailers aim to draw in customers. Second, while the headline number is down, consumers should pay attention to side-dish prices particularly fresh vegetables and prepared trays, where inflation is still very much active. Finally, shoppers may want to consider timing their purchases; the survey notes that turkey prices often dip even further closer to the holiday as retailers compete for foot traffic.
In short, while the report shows a welcome softening in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for ten, it also highlights how food-price dynamics remain complex. The star of the meal, the turkey, may be more affordable, but many of the supporting cast the sides and vegetables continue to carry elevated costs. For households budgeting for the holiday, strategic shopping and awareness of promotions will still be essential.
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