U.S. holiday retail sales rose about 4 percent this season

23 December 2025

Retailers across the United States are closing in on a solid holiday season, with preliminary data from Visa and Mastercard showing that U.S. holiday retail sales climbed roughly 4 percent in 2025 compared with the same period last year, a performance that reflects both resilient consumer demand and changing purchasing habits as Americans navigated a complex economic backdrop. The figures, drawn from billions of transactions across the two major payment networks, capture spending patterns from November 1 through December 21 and paint a picture of shoppers who are deliberate with their dollars but still eager to invest in high-value categories like technology and clothing.

Visa’s analysis of payment activity, excluding autos, gasoline and restaurants, showed a 4.2 percent year-over-year increase in retail spending during the first seven weeks of the holiday shopping period, a result that slightly undershot its October forecast for the season but nonetheless signalled resilience among consumers. Mastercard, which includes both retail and food services in its measure, reported a 3.9 percent increase, topping its earlier projection of 3.6 percent growth. Both sets of figures were not adjusted for inflation, a factor that analysts note can influence year-on-year comparisons but that retailers traditionally use for broad trend insight.

One of the standout themes of the season has been the way shoppers harnessed digital tools to stretch their budgets. Visa’s chief economist, Wayne Best, noted that many consumers turned to artificial intelligence-driven price comparison tools to find the best deals and make more informed purchasing decisions, a trend that illustrated how technology is reshaping holiday buying behavior. This type of smart spending became especially important in a year when inflation and tariff impacts lingered in some categories, prompting buyers to be more intentional about where and how they spent their money.

The overall retail picture also underscored the continuing coexistence of both in-person and online shopping. Despite growth in e-commerce, traditional brick-and-mortar stores remained dominant, accounting for approximately 73 percent of all holiday transactions, with the remaining share coming from online purchases. Still, online retail showed strong momentum, with e-commerce sales rising sharply as shoppers took advantage of early promotions and the convenience of home delivery. This pattern reflects a sustained shift in consumer behavior that blends digital and physical shopping experiences.

In terms of specific spending categories, electronics emerged as a powerhouse, with sales of devices such as televisions, smartphones and laptops posting some of the largest gains of the season. Visa’s data showed electronics spending up by roughly 5.8 percent compared with the previous year. Clothing and accessories also attracted significant consumer investment, rising by about 5.3 percent, driven in part by seasonal wardrobe refreshes and promotional discounts that appealed to shoppers mindful of style and price. Mastercard’s insights pointed to similar trends, with apparel and jewelry among categories that outpaced overall growth.

While these gains illustrate a healthy appetite for certain goods, the pace of growth this season was more modest compared to some past holiday periods, indicating that consumers remain cautious amid economic uncertainty. Factors such as persistent price pressures, ongoing questions about inflation and the impact of tariffs on costs likely played roles in shaping how much and where people chose to spend. Even so, the roughly 4 percent expansion in holiday sales falls within most industry forecasts for a solid seasonal outcome and suggests that Americans are balancing careful budgeting with continued interest in gift-giving and big-ticket purchases.

Industry observers have highlighted that while the headline numbers show resilience, the underlying story is one of adaptation. Shoppers appear to be allocating discretionary income to categories that feel essential or high-value, such as electronics and clothing, while being more selective about other purchases. The data also points to a holiday season in which early promotions mattered more than ever, with retailers offering deals well before December to capture demand and help consumers manage budgets. Many analysts view these early discounts as a reflection of the competitive retail environment as well as the broader economic context.

Retailers themselves are taking note of how buying behavior has shifted. Many reported that promotions tied to Thanksgiving, Cyber Week and December holiday events helped sustain traffic and sales, illustrating the importance of timing and pricing strategy in capturing consumer interest. Although inflation remains a factor for many families, the combination of early bargains, digital convenience and targeted spending categories helped push overall holiday sales higher this season.

As holiday retail figures continue to be finalized with official government data still forthcoming, these early insights from Visa and Mastercard provide valuable context for how the season unfolded. They suggest that while concerns about the broader economy persist, shoppers remain engaged and willing to spend on the products and experiences that matter most to them during the holidays. The results also offer optimism for retailers heading into the end of the year and the beginning of 2026, even as businesses prepare for post-holiday returns and inventory adjustments